Washington vs Washington State

Washington vs Washington State : Two top-16 teams will fight to claim the state of Washington and maybe even a College Football Playoff invitation. So it’s fair to ask; is this the most important Apple Cup of all time?

Washington vs Washington State Live

No. 7 Washington State will play host to No. 16 Washington in Friday’s most important rivalry game. For the Cougars, it’s not just a chance to snap the Huskies’ five-game winning streak against their in-state rival, but also an opportunity to prove they belong when the CFP unveils its final four teams in two weeks. A three-loss Washington squad doesn’t have the same stakes at hand, but ruining Mike Leach’s title aspirations would serve to make nearly everyone in Seattle’s holidays a bit brighter.

Oh, and the winner claims the Pac-12 North title and a spot in the conference championship game, too.

In the annals of all-time great Apple Cups, 2018 could be the biggest. But will it live up to the hype?

Washington vs. Washington State prediction:

The S&P+ ratings see Washington State as the nation’s No. 20 team. But they clock the underdog Huskies at No. 10. Factor in the universe’s cold indifference to Mike Leach’s happiness and achievement, and you’ve got all the makings of a Washington win Saturday evening.

Time, TV channel, and streaming info

Time: 8:30 p.m. ET

Location: Martin Stadium, Pullman, WA

TV: FOX

StreamingFOXSportsGO, fuboTV

Odds: Washington State is favored by 2.5 points.

Washington vs. Washington State news:

One major point of concern for Washington; State throws the hell out of the ball, but has the nation’s lowest sack rate.

Of course Gardner Minshew’s got his own, mustache-glorifying song now.

Friday’s winner gets Utah for the Pac-12 title. Yeah, it’s been a weird year on the west coast.

Minshew had as many touchdown passes as incompletions in the first half last week against Arizona. He’s OK I guess.

Minshew is an extremely Mike Leach quarterback, and as such he’s absolutely lit up the skies with his passing this fall. He leads the FBS in passing yards (by nearly 500 yards!) and is tied for the national lead in passing touchdowns thanks to a cannon arm that’s averaged nearly 400 yards per game. But he’s not just a volume thrower — he’s completed a career-high 70.4% of his passes for an efficient 7.5 yards per attempt along the way.

He’s probably not going to win the Heisman — Tua Tagovailoa has that award pretty much wrapped up — but he can earn a spot among the finalists with another big game Friday night

Oklahoma vs West Virginia

Oklahoma vs West Virginia : West Virginia has already seen its College Football Playoff hopes dashed by one team from Oklahoma. Less than a week later, the Mountaineers could see their Big 12 title aspirations die on the line against another program from the Sooner State.

Oklahoma vs West Virginia Live

No. 13 West Virginia hosts No. 6 Oklahoma in a game that will decide one half of the Big 12’s conference championship game. The Mountaineers lost their claim to a spot in the FBS’s final fourin a 45-41 loss to Oklahoma State that extended Mike Gundy’s recent dominance over WVU head coach Dana Holgorsen. Week 12 marked the Cowboys’ fourth-straight win against West Virginia.

Oklahoma has been even more dominant against the Mountaineers than their in-state rivals. The Sooners haven’t lost to WVU since it joined the Big 12 in 2012. A seventh-straight win against a typically-explosive West Virginia team wouldn’t just extend OU’s reign of dominance against the conference newcomers, it would also secure Lincoln Riley’s program a spot in the Big 12 title game next week and keep its national title hopes alive.

Oklahoma vs. West Virginia prediction:

The S&P+ ratings put the Sooners right on the brink of the CFP at No. 5. West Virginia, thanks to a lack of big value wins, clocks in at No. 18. The Mountaineers are capable of putting up a ton of points in a hurry, but so is Oklahoma. So why is Friday’s game going to be much different than WVU’s loss to Oklahoma State?

I …don’t know. Sooners by 4.

Time, TV channel, and streaming info

  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • Location: Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, WV
  • TV: ESPN
  • StreamingWatchESPN
  • Odds: Oklahoma is favored by 24.5 points.

Oklahoma vs. West Virginia news:

  • Yes, Friday’s game is one of the biggest in West Virginia history.
  • Lincoln Riley may be an offensive genius, but it’s putting a lot of strain on his defense.

Specifically, throwing the ball more on offense means your defense has to be on the field more because: a) you’re usually covering more ground on a completion than when you’re running the ball, so your own possessions are shorter; and b) the clock stops on incompletions. Therefore, both teams end up with more possessions.

When your defense is struggling the way the Oklahoma Sooners are right now, that creates a problem. The more offensive possessions the opponent gets, the more opportunities it has to score. That gets magnified when you’re playing other offensively inclined teams such as OSU and Tech.

The Mountaineers’ lack of big wins is killing them in the CFP rankings.

Riley has nothing but respect for WVU’s Will Grier and David Sills V.

Will Grier has played his way up from overlooked transfer to potential first round pick in Holgorsen’s season. He’s blossomed into one of the NCAA’s most reliable quarterbacks, throwing for 332+ yards in 10 of his 11 games this fall while ranking in the top 10 in passing yards, touchdowns, and quarterback rating. He’s been the engine that’s powered the Mountaineers toward a potential New Year’s Day bowl game.

But he’s not infallible. Iowa State limited him to just 100 passing yards in an upset win back in October. Kansas (Kansas!) forced him into three interceptions in a closer than expected defeat. The Sooners, however, haven’t exactly been defensive stalwarts this season. Oklahoma has given up 40+ points in each of its last three games, which includes a 40 pointer against Kansas (…Kansas!). Expect a shootout in the John Denver State Friday.

UCF vs South Florida

UCF vs South Florida : South Florida Bulls vs. UCF Knights, 11/23/18 Predictions & Odds Will No. 9 UCF finish off another perfect regular season with an impressive win at South Florida this afternoon at 4:15PM ET?

UCF vs South Florida Live

According to oddsmakers at BetNow.eu, UCF is the favorite on the road, as . the Knights are getting odds of -14 points against South Florida. The over/under total for the contest is currently listed at 69.5 points. The public betting for this game currently has 73 percent going on Central Florida on the road.

After a great start to the 2018 season, the Bulls have dropped four straight following a 27-17 loss at Temple. USF is now 7-4 overall and 3-4 in the AAC. The Bulls are 4-7 against the spread and 6-5 with the under. USF has covered the spread in its last two games.

The Bulls are giving up 30.9 points and 431.4 yards per game on defense. Their run defense is giving up 231.4 yards per game on the ground. When it comes to offense, the Bulls are putting up 30.9 points and 456.5 yards per game. Their rushing attack is putting up over 200 yards per game. Jordan Cronkriteleads the ground attack with 1,065 yards and nine touchdowns while Johnny Ford has 617 yards and eight scores. Blake Barnett has thrown or 2,493 yards and 11 touchdowns, but also has 11 interceptions. He also has rushed for 313 yards and eight touchdowns.

Central Florida continued its unbeaten season last week with a dominant 38-13 win over Cincinnati at home. UCF is 10-0 on the season and 7-0 in the AAC. The Knights are 7-3 against the spread and 7-3 with the under. UCF has covered the spread in three of its last four games.

UCF has been pretty strong on both sides of the ball. The defense is giving up 419.1 yards per game, but allowing only 20.4 points per contest. Offensively, the Knights are putting up 43.6 points and 528.9 yards per game. McKenzie Milton has thrown for 2,577 yards and 24 touchdowns to lead the offense. He also has nine rushing touchdowns. Greg McCrae has led the ground attack with 714 yards and five touchdowns while Adrian Killins Jr. had 573 yards and four touchdowns.

South Florida is just 3-9 against the spread in their last 12 conference games and 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

The Knights are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games on grass and 6-2 ATS in their last eight conference games.

UCF is locked in and I don’t see a letdown happening today. The Knights were vey impressive against Cincinnati and already had their trap game against Navy two weeks ago. The Bulls are not playing very well on offense right now and that doesn’t bode well against an offensive team that is scoring in bunches. USF may have better offensive success today, but not at high enough a pace to cover against the Knights.

Virginia vs Virginia Tech

Virginia vs Virginia Tech : It’s rivalry week around college football, and for the Virginia Cavaliers that means the Virginia Tech Hokies. It means hearing over and over again about the last 14 years. All losses if you hadn’t heard.

Virginia vs Virginia Tech Live

This year, though, the Hoos come in 7-4 while the Hokies are 4-6. Virginia is coming off a tough overtime loss on the road at a strong Georgia Tech team. The Hokies, meanwhile, are coming off four consecutive losses, including a 38-14 drubbing at home to Miami. They also, as you may have heard, lost by 14 points to ODU, who lost to Liberty by 42. Virginia beat Liberty by 21, so by the transitive property of college football, Virginia should beat the Hokies by 77 points (14+42+21=77). The Hokies are also 1-4 at home this year, along with 3-2 on the road.

Can Virginia go on the road and pick up a rivalry win over Virginia Tech when the two meet up this afternoon at 3:30PM ET?

According to oddsmakers at BetNow.eu, Virginia is favored on the road in this game, as the Cavaliers are getting odds of -4.5 points against Virginia Tech. The over/under total for the contest is currently listed at 49.5 points. The public betting for this game currently has 68 percent going on Virginia on the road.

Virginia Tech has dropped for straight coming into this game following a 38-13 loss at home to Miami. The Hokies are now 4-6 overall and 3-4 in the ACC. Tech is 3-7 against the spread this year and 5-4-1 with the over. They have failed to cover the spread in six straight.

Tech is struggling on defense this year, far more than we have ever really seen. The Hokies are giving up 31.7 points and 436.6 yards per contest. Their run defense is giving up over 200 yards per game. On offense, the Hokies average 28.2 points and 421.6 yards per contest. Ryan Willis has been the starting QB most of the season, throwing for 1,986 yards and 17 touchdowns with six interceptions. Damon Hazelton has caught 45 passes for 745 yards and eight touchdowns while Steven Peoples has rushed for 586 yards and five touchdowns.

Virginia already has a bowl game locked up, but the Cavs have lost two of their last three and looking to end the regular season on a high note. Virginia is 7-4 overall and 4-3 in the ACC. The Cavs are 8-3 against the spread and 6-5 with the over. UVA is just 1-2 ATS in its last three.

The Cavs have been led by their defense this year, as they are allowing just 20.6 points and 326.6 yards per game. Their pass defense is giving up just 178.4 yards per contest. On offense, Virginia averages 28.3 points and 378.8 yards per game. Their rushing attack puts up 171.2 yards per contest. Jordan Ellis has rushed for 868 yards and eight touchdowns. Bryce Perkins has thrown for 2,213 yards and 19 touchdowns while rushing for 730 yards and nine scores. Olamide Zaccheaus is the leading receiver with 903 yards and six touchdowns on 77 catches.

Virginia Tech has failed to cover the spread in four straight home games and five straight conference games.

Virginia is 4-1 against the spread in its last five conference games and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games overall.

Virginia Tech has dominated this series, but these two teams are very much unlike they have usually been in previous years. The Hokies are not playing well on defense at all this year and their offense has been very inconsistent. UVA has a defense that should be able to lock up Tech and its offense. From there, the Cavs won’t have to score a lot to cover the spread. I like Virginia in this one, as the Cavs have years of frustration to let out on the Hokies.

Oregon vs Oregon State

Oregon vs Oregon State : Considering their sizeable disadvantage in the spread, Oregon St. will have a real challenge on their hands next week. They will look to defend their home turf against Oregon at 4:00 p.m. Oregon St. are hoping to patch up the holes in a defense that has allowed an average of 44.82 points per game. Oregon State can’t reach bowl eligibility, but it can win the Civil War vs. Oregon football. Can the Beavers upset the Ducks for the second time in three years?

Oregon vs Oregon State Live

Two years ago, Oregon State defeated rival Oregon for the first time in nearly a decade. This year, however, the Ducks are a much better outfit than the 4-8 team that resulted in Mark Helfrich’s termination. On their third head coach in three seasons, Oregon is on track to land in one of the second-tier Pac-12-affiliated bowl games. First, though, Mario Cristobal needs to win his first Civil War showdown as head coach of the Ducks.

Teaming up with one of the nation’s top receivers in Dillon Mitchell, Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert is on track to be one of the top picks in the 2019 NFL Draft — if he decides to forgo his senior season to go pro. If this is indeed his last Civil War for the Ducks, Herbert will be looking to go out on a high note in enemy territory.

Oregon State, a regular contender in the Pac-10 before it expanded to 12 teams in 2011, is still a long way from returning to perennial contention. The Beavers have struggled mightily on both sides of the line. No team in the country gives up more sacks than the Beavers, and the Oregon State defense gives up more points per game than all but one teams in the FBS.

Weird things happen in rivalry games, though, as the Civil War has shown over the years. Here’s how you can watch the 122nd edition of the longstanding rivalry game on Black Friday between Oregon and Oregon State:

Date: Friday, Nov. 23
Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
Location: Corvallis, Ore.
Venue: Reser Stadium
TV: FS1
Live Stream: FOX Sports Go | FuboTV

If Oregon State has any chance of pulling off the upset, it will be because they have found some way to stop Justin Herbert from carving up one of the weakest secondaries in all of college football. They need to get third-down stops and force the Ducks into punting situations, something they have struggled to do to teams this year. Giving Jake Luton time to find open receivers will also be critical.

Oregon, conversely, needs one of the best ballhawking secondaries to keep feeding the ball back to the Ducks offense. They could also stand to finally start recovering some of the many fumbles that Justin Hollins and the rest of the Ducks have produced this year. In general, though, Oregon mostly needs to take full advantage of a Beavers side that ranks 125th in the country against the run.

Oregon is going to obliterate the point spread, as they more than double up the score on the Beavers on Friday afternoon in Corvallis. The Ducks will get at least 300 yards and three touchdowns through the air from Herbert, who will also run in a score. Look for CJ Verdell to have a huge game on the ground for the Ducks as well, while the Oregon defense will force at least three turnovers.

Arkansas vs Missouri

Arkansas vs Missouri : The Missouri Tigers will wrap up their regular season on Friday afternoon when they host the Arkansas Razorbacks at 2:30 p.m. ET. With the total sitting in the low-60s, will the over cash for bettors? Two teams trending in completely opposite directions clash on Friday as Arkansas football and Missouri are looking to end the season strong.

Arkansas vs Missouri Live

After losing a heart-breaking (and controversial) game to Kentucky on an untimed down, the Missouri Tigers season was trending downward quickly. The team sat at 0-4 in the SEC and 4-4 overall, and with No. 11 Florida upcoming, it was fair to wonder if the Tigers would even make a bowl game.

CLICK HERE TO WATCH NOW

Fast forward to the end of November and Missouri is a team that no one wants to play. The Tigers dismantled Florida on the road, and then followed it up with wins over Vanderbilt and Tennessee. A regular season that seemed lost now has a chance to finish at a respectable 8-4.

The Tigers are led by quarterback Drew Lock, who has thrown for 2903 yards and 23 touchdowns this season, and running back Larry Rountree, who has the chance to eclipse the 1000 yard mark on the season on Friday (he needs 107 yards).

For Arkansas, nothing this season has gone right. Its only wins have come against Eastern Illinois and Tulsa. The Razorbacks don’t do anything particularly well, evidenced by a 106th ranked scoring offense and defense. It takes mad skill to be that bad.

This will probably be a blowout, but still the only ranked team playing in the same general time slot is No. 14 Texas playing Kansas, so this game could hold some intrigue, if only to watch the Missouri offense.

Here’s how you can watch Friday’s Missouri vs Arkansas game:

Date: Friday, Nov. 23
Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
Location: Columbia, Mo.
Venue: Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field
TV: CBS
Live Stream: CBS Sports or FuboTV

For Missouri, starting fast will be a key. If the Tigers can get out ahead of the Razorbacks, chances are that Arkansas’ weak offense won’t be able to keep pace.

In addition, Arkansas has struggled all season with turnovers, if the Tigers can force Arkansas into mistakes, the game will turn very quickly.

For Arkansas, slowing down Lock is the key. If Lock can sit in the pocket all day and pick Arkansas apart, it will be a long day for the Razorbacks. They will need to hold Missouri back offensively to have a chance.

At a glance, there appears no chance that the Razorbacks can be competitive in this game. However, closer examination shows that Arkansas played Texas A&M, Ole Miss, and LSU tough before falling by one possession. This one stays close for about one quarter, but then Mizzou’s high-powered offense takes over. Lock throws for four touchdowns, taking over the game in the third quarter.

Final Score: Missouri 45, Arkansas 17

Houston vs Memphis

Houston vs Memphis : Houston defensive tackle Ed Oliver has missed the past four games with a knee injury, but ESPN reported that the reigning Outland Trophy winner is expected to return for Friday’s game against Memphis.

Houston vs Memphis Live

Officially, Oliver remains day-to-day, according to the Cougars’ footballprogram, and there has been speculation that Oliver would sit out the rest of his college football season as he prepares for the upcoming NFL Draft.

Can we expect a lot of offensive firepower when Memphis plays host to Houston on Friday afternoon at Noon ET?

According to oddsmakers at BetNow.eu, Memphis is favored to win this game, as the Tigers are getting odds of -7 points against Houston. The over/under total is currently listed at 76.5 points. The public betting currently is split right down the middle, 50/50.

Houston put an end to a brief 2-game losing streak last week with a 48-17 win over Tulane at home. The Cougars are 8-3 overall, 5-2 in the AAC, 6-5 against the spread and 7-4 with the over. They have hit the over in four of their last five games.

The Cougars have one of the most productive offenses in the nation, averaging 47.8 points and 540.8 yards per game. The team took a pretty big blow when D’Eriq Kingsuffered a season-ending knee injury. He had thrown for 2,982 yards and 36 touchdowns while rushing for 674 yards and 14 scores. Clayton Tune is now under center. He has 309 passing yards with four touchdowns. Patrick Carr is the leading rusher with 733 yards and five touchdowns while Marquez Stevenson has caught 61 passes for 892 yards and nine touchdowns. Defensively, Houston is giving up 32.8 points and 477.9 yards per game. That includes nearly 300 passing yards per contest. The defense could continue to be without defensive tackle Ed Oliver again this week, as he is dealing with a knee injury.

After losses to UCF and Missouri, Memphis has won three straight games coming into this week, including a 28-18 win at SMU last weekend. Memphis is now 7-4 overall, 4-3 in the AAC, 7-4 against the spread and 6-5 with the over. The Tigers have hit the over in three of their last four.

The Tigers are an offensive power as well, averaging 43.1 points and 523 yards per contest. Running back Darrell Henderson has run for 1,521 yards and 17 touchdowns to lead the offense while Patrick Taylor Jr. is adding 766 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground. Brady White has thrown for 2,738 yards and 24 touchdowns with five interceptions. Damonte Coxie is the leading receiver with 60 catches for 1,039 yards and seven scores. Defensively, Memphis is giving up 29.4 points and 397.5 yards per game.

Houston has hit the over in four of its last five road games and in five straight games on fieldturf.

Memphis has hit the over in 15 of its last 19 home games and in 10 of its last 14 against a winning team.

The total is set quite high, as both teams have been very productive on offense. I do see Memphis definitely being able to put up 40 or more, as Houston is a mess on defense. The question is, how much can the Cougars score on the road with a backup quarterback. The Memphis defense has looked good at home this year, allowing 22 or less in three of the five games. With the total so high, I just think some things can happen to prevent that. A few turnovers, a dropped pass, etc. I will take my chances with the under.

Ohio vs Akron

Ohio vs Akron : Akron suffered a rough 24-14 loss at Miami University, but it’s fine. Ohio came up with a statement win over Toledo, but that doesn’t make a difference now. It’s all about the MAC East championship game now – or close to it.

Ohio vs. Akron Live Game Preview

Broadcast, TV, Game Time

Date: Saturday, November 18th
Game Time: 7:00 pm ET
Venue: InfoCision Stadium, Akron, OH
Network: ESPN2

– Week 12 TV Schedule, Lines, Fearless Picks
 Week 12 Expert Picks

Ohio is off to the MAC title game with a win, while Akron would still need to either hit the two-foot putt against Kent State – or get a Bobcat loss – if it wins at home.

The Zips don’t have an offense, and QB Thomas Woodson is banged up, but the defense has been just strong enough to make up for it. There haven’t been any really good wins outside of the shocker at Western Michigan, but they’re a win away from going bowling.

But the Bobcat offense is on fire.

The ground game crushed Toledo with 393 yards – QB Nathan Rourke ran for 115 yards and a score, and Dorian Brown tore off 142 yards and two touchdowns – with big run after big run.

Can the Zips somehow take control of the game at home enough to at least come up with third down stops and get off the field? More than that, the O has to dominate the third down tries – even without all the key parts.

The Bobcats are just sharp enough to not screw this up, and the defense is too solid to blow their chance to play for the conference title. Akron will come up hot, but Ohio will take control of the game as it goes on.

The Ohio pass rush will dominate the fourth quarter, and the running game will put it away late.

Nebraska vs Iowa

Nebraska vs Iowa : The Heroes Trophy might only be seven years old, dating back to when Nebraskajoined the Big Ten in 2011 and began playing Iowa again annually. However, the Iowa vs. Nebraska rivalry dates all the way back to 1891 and it will only gain steam as Scott Frost looks to make the Cornhuskers perennial contenders in the Big Ten West.

Nebraska vs Iowa Livestream

For this year’s tilt, the Hawkeyes are 8.5-point favorites, up one from the opening line. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 53 in the current Iowa vs. Nebraska odds. Both teams won outright and against the spread last time out, so before you lock in any selections, you’ll want to see the Iowa vs. Nebraska picks from SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh.

Click Here To Instant Access Now Free

The renowned co-founder of AccuScore, Oh simulates each game 10,000 times using the SportsLine Projection Model. He has built a sizable profit picking college football in 2018 and he has had an especially keen eye for the tendencies of Nebraska football, boasting a nearly perfect 6-1 mark in games involving the Cornhuskers. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, he has locked in a strong against the spread pick for Iowa vs. Nebraska. You can only see it at SportsLine.

Oh knows Iowa has an uncharacteristically dangerous passing attack in 2018. If you take away Iowa’s win over Maryland where high winds limited them to 86 yards passing, the Hawkeyes are averaging almost 264 yards per game through the air.

Quarterback Nathan Stanley has benefited from a number of receiving options. Tight end T.J. Hockenson is one of the best in the nation, with 41 catches for 663 yards and six touchdowns. Meanwhile, wideouts Noah Fant, Nick Easley, Brandon Smith and Ihmir Smith-Marsette all have at least 292 yards receiving.

Nebraska’s secondary will be taxed to cover all those options, meaning a strong day from Stanley could spell doom for Cornhuskers’ backers.

However, Oh also knows that this is a much different Nebraska team than the one that opened up the season with six straight losses, making a cover for Iowa anything but guaranteed.

In the past five games, Nebraska has four wins, with their only loss coming at Ohio State by just five points. One of the big reasons Scott Frost’s team is turning things around is that the Cornhuskers are running the football a lot more effectively.

They’re averaging nearly 50 yards more on the ground in their past five games (242.4) versus their first six games (192.7). Nebraska is also averaging 6.4 yards per carry in those five games versus 4.8 in its first six. That’s a 33 percent uptick, and if the Cornhuskers can run the ball that efficiently against a tough Iowa defense, they’ll have a chance to cover.

We can tell you Oh is leaning toward the under, but his much stronger play is on the side. He has crunched the numbers and discovered a crucial x-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back. He’s sharing what it is only at SportsLine.

Who covers Nebraska vs. Iowa? And what crucial x-factor causes one side of the spread to hit hard? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side you need to jump all over Friday, all from a data scientist who’s 6-1 on his picks involving the Cornhuskers.

Texas vs Kansas

Texas vs Kansas : Even though he won’t take the sidelines for about eight months, the hiring of Les Miles has put Kansas football in the national spotlight this week. They’ll host No. 11 Texas on Friday at Noon ET in lame duck head coach David Beatty’s last game before handing over the reins to Miles.

Texas vs Kansas Live

The Longhorns are 15.5-point road favorites and the total is 49.5 in the latest Texas vs. Kansas odds. However, with Kansas trying to send off Beatty with an epic upset and Texas needing a win to secure a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game, there’s plenty at stake for both teams. Before you make any Texas vs. Kansas picks and predictions, check out what SportsLine’s Josh Nagel has to say.

Click Here To Instant Access Now Free

No. 11 Texas takes on Kansas on Friday at noon ET and controls its own destiny to get into the Big 12 Championship Game. The Longhorns are favored by 15.5 on the road against the Jayhawks in the latest Texas vs. Kansas odds and only need a win to punch their ticket to AT&T Stadium. However, Kansas will also be motivated, with David Beatty coaching his final game and former national champion coach Les Miles set to take over the program next season. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas expects to be scored, is 49.5, down from an open of 51. Before you make your Texas vs. Kansas picks, be sure to check out what SportsLine senior analyst Josh Nagel has to say.

A Nevada-based expert with 20 years of experience in the sports wagering industry, Nagel specializes in handicapping college athletics. Moreover, he has had a keen eye for the tendencies of Texas and boasts a record of 6-1 in games involving the Longhorns over the past two seasons.

Last week, he advised SportsLine members to back Texas (-3) against a ranked Iowa Statesquad. The result: The Longhorns dominated most of the way and held on for a 24-10 victory. Anyone who followed Nagel’s advice booked two comfortable wins, as he also advised the Under in that game.

Now, he’s locked in on Kansas vs. Texas (streaming on fuboTV). He has revealed a strong spread pick you can only see at SportsLine.

Nagel has taken into account the fact that Texas starting quarterback Sam Ehlinger has aggravated a sprained AC joint in his throwing shoulder. Multiple reports say he’ll start against Kansas, but how effective he’ll be remains to be seen.

The Longhorns’ offense loses an edge without the full running ability of Ehlinger. He has become the de facto short-yardage back for Texas, and so much of the offensive success that Tom Herman has been able to scheme up has been predicated on the threat of Ehlinger hurting teams with his legs. If he plays and is limited, he might not have his normal effectiveness and the potency of Texas’ run-pass option would suffer. That could give Kansas the chance to play inspired football one last time for Beatty and sneak in a cover.

However, don’t assume that Texas can’t cover, even with a quarterback who might not be 100 percent.

The Jayhawks might have played better late this season, taking Kansas State and Oklahoma to the edge since news that Beatty would not be welcomed back in 2018. But they’re still a 3-8 football team that lost to FCS Nicholls State and has lost six of their eight Big 12 games this season by at least Friday’s spread.

Plus, with news that Miles will be taking over and likely watching closely Friday, you can expect Kansas players with eligibility left to press in an effort to catch Miles’ eye.

Nagel has analyzed Texas vs. Kansas from every angle and unearthed the critical x-factor that causes one side of the spread to hit hard. You absolutely need to see it before locking in your own picks.